Britons living in Bulgaria. Guide to Bulgaria, Sofia and Varna

Europe sets date when deaths overtake births: 7 years - International Herald Tribune

Europe sets date when deaths overtake births: 7 years International Herald Tribune, France - Aug 26, 2008 But by 2050 Britons, who both reproduce more and allow more immigration, are likely to outnumber Germans and within a further 10 years France, too, ...

Europe sets date when deaths overtake births: 7 years - International Herald Tribune But by 2050 Britons, who both reproduce more and allow more immigration, are likely to outnumber Germans and within a further 10 years France, too, should have leapfrogged its eastern neighbor in the populationrankings. The findings come in an official EU study, released Tuesday, which concedes for the first time that Europeans will begin their long foreseen demographic decline in just seven years' time - the point at which deaths exceedbirths. The report, published by the European Union's statistical agency Eurostat, reveals large variations between the birth rates of member states but paints an overall picture of an agingpopulation. The document does not explore the reasons for differences in European fertility. But it does hint at the profound economic and social changes likely to unfold during the next half century, as the proportion of older people growssteadily. According to the document, not only will Germany lose its status as Europe's most populous nation but several East European nations will experience a sharp drop in numbers - with populations shrinking by a quarter or more. By contrast Cyprus, Ireland and Luxembourg will all boost their numbers by at leasthalf. Immigration will not, on current trends, make up the shortfall in the working age population, the reportsays. Now with a combined total of 495 million people, the 27 nations that make up the EU will increase their population to a total of 521 million in 2035 before falling back to 506 million in2060. The document deals only with population trends in Europe. According to another report published last year, the United States population will increase from 301 million to 468 million in 2060, including 105 million new immigrants. The study, by Steven Camarota, director of research at the Center for Immigration Studies, an independent research institute, used U.S. Census Bureau data and Census Bureau assumptions about future birth and deathrates. Officials stress that the European projections should be treated with caution because they assume current trends continue and that there is no change of policy to deal with the looming demographiccrisis. But for Europeans the economic implications of an aging population are stark. By 2060 the United Kingdom will have 77 million people; France, 72 million and Germany, 71 million. Italy's population will grow slightly then fall back to its current level of 59 million while Spain will increase from 45 million to 51million. But Poland, which currently numbers 38 million, will drop to 31 million, a reduction of 18 percent. Meanwhile even bigger decreases will hit Bulgaria (28 percent), Latvia (26 percent, Lithuania (24 percent) and Romania (21percent). By contrast the population of Cyprus will grow by 66 percent, Ireland by 53 percent, Luxembourg by 52 percent and the United Kingdom byone-quarter. From this point onwards positive net migration will be the only population growthfactor. Last week, German researchers from the Berlin Institute for Population and Development said that without immigration, the EU's population will shrink to 447 million by 2050, Reuters reported from Berlin. The experts predicted that some rural areas - notably in Poland, Bulgaria, Eastern Germany, northern Spain and southern Italy - will empty out completely, Reuterssaid. Most E-Mailed24 Hours|7 Days|30 Days1.Roger Cohen: Palin's American exception2.Thomas L.